As you might have noticed in recent months and years, there’s a growing number of regulations, both existent and proposed, being aimed at the online adult entertainment industry.
From the Digital Age Assurance Act and SCREEN Act under consideration at the federal level, to a growing number of states that have enacted age verification mandates, it seems like owners of online adult businesses can’t walk into their offices without clearing another regulatory hurdle on the way in.
But where others might see reason to despair in this environment of increasing regulatory scrutiny, I see opportunity. What the porn industry needs isn’t a lack of regulatory scrutiny; what we need is to be scrutinized by the right regulators. And without a doubt, the right regulator for the online adult industry – or at least for a new segment of the online adult industry I’m about to propose – clearly is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
If you’ve been hearing about CFTC a lot lately, that’s because CFTC is the agency charged with oversight of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Thus far though, CFTC’s primary regulatory activity has been asserting its primacy and exclusivity of authority over prediction markets, as opposed to truly overseeing them in any meaningful fashion.
Back in the summer of 2024, while under the Biden Administration, CFTC published proposed rulemaking that would have pegged sports and politics-related event contracts as “contrary to the public interest,” which likely would have meant they couldn’t operate as CFTC-regulated exchanges. That proposal was never finalized and was formally withdrawn by CFTC in February of this year.
With the changing of the guard in the White House in January 2025, CFTC’s perspective on these markets has shifted dramatically. In March of this year, CFTC published a predictions market advisory stating that prediction markets “are rapidly increasing in popularity with the American public” and that CFTC staff “believe it is important to encourage innovation and growth in these markets, within the federal oversight framework for Commission-registered derivatives exchanges set forth in the Commodity Exchange Act and Commission regulations.”
For the most part, CFTC’s involvement with prediction market regulation has thus far been limited to telling states to keep their mitts off platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. And this is where my sudden interest in being regulated by the CFTC comes in, naturally.
In early August, the CFTC sued Minnesota over the state’s prediction market ban. They’ve also pushed back on states with lawsuits targeting New York, Arizona, Illinois and Connecticut to block enforcement of state gambling laws against prediction market platforms.
If I can get my porn prediction market to be regulated by CFTC, can Mr. Selig do me a little favor with respect to various state-level age verification laws? While he’s at it, can he talk to Congress about all the innovation, expression and… uh… American greatness they’re stifling with all this talk of DAAA and SCREEN and SAVE and BLORT and whatever other legislative acronyms they might come up with on Capitol Hill?
How would a porn prediction market work, I can hear you asking? Honestly, that’s the easiest part in this whole scheme.
My forthcoming “Erotic Prediction Market Platform” (sounds much nicer and more official than “Filthy Porno Gambling Site,” don’t you think?) would offer live feeds of sex shows, then permit gamblers users to wager betspurchase contracts on things that might happen during the live sex shows.
Contracts could include questions like “How long will the strip tease go on before true foreplay ensues?” and “At what point will heavy petting transition to oral sex?” and “Will any performer involved say “Sleepy Joe?” Other contracts could explore whether or not the male talent(s) will be able to maintain their erections, whether and where ejaculate will be visible at the culmination of the encounter and assorted other important, meaningful questions that are best answered by the ‘wisdom of crowds’ – in this case, crowds of mostly young men who will put money down on literally anything.
I’m sure there will be some pushback to my Erotic Prediction Market Platform (tentatively branded “PrognASSticate”) from people who say it’s not really a legit prediction market, or that it’s too easily manipulated by people with insider information, or by people directly participating in the sex shows at its core – or by me, because frankly who is going to stop me, as the answer obviously isn’t Michael Selig.
Just in case even the CFTC can’t bring itself to look the other way with respect to PrognASSticate, I also plan to retain a member of the Trump family as a “strategic advisor,” whatever that term might mean in this context.
I hereby invite all members and stakeholders of the online adult entertainment industry to join me in the revolution that will be the Erotic Prediction Market space! And don’t just climb aboard the PrognASSticate train, launch EPMs of your own!
Among other things, that way I can offer contracts on my EPM about the exact date your EPMs will transition from beta to full launch.
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